When asked about how important it was to get off to a hot start, Byrd answered like this.

“It’s huge,” Byrd said. “It’s hard starting off slow. I’m trying to get some hits out of the way before we get to Chicago — before I get booed.”

Wow.  He knows he’s going to get booed.   Shouldn’t the number one reason you want to get off to a hot start is to maybe help your team?  Or maybe to make sure all that hard work pays off?  No, it’s to not get booed in your own home park.

Why in the hell is it nicknamed the Friendly Confines?

Isn’t it a little strange to you that a hitter is already predicting he’s going to get booed at his own home park?

I just love Cubs fans sometimes.  Even the new guys are already skeptical.  I blame Ryan Theriot.

Last year, the bullpen ERA was 4.11, good for 20th in the MLB.  To upgrade, the Cubs didn’t really do much, as they just signed John Grabow to an extension and called up a few younger guys.  Should the Cubs have signed some bullpen help?  In short, no.

1) Payroll restrictions – Tom Ricketts only gave Jim Hendry so much money to work with this off-season.  With that money, he had to find an outfielder, find another starter, add pieces to his pen and figure out second base.  He had about $10M – he gave 18M over three years to Marlon Byrd, signed Grabow, traded for Carlos Silva and had to pick up part of his deal and most of Milton Bradley’s.

2) Jeff Gray and Angel Guzman  are hurt – Guzman was supposed to be the setup man for Marmol this year, and Gray was supposed to be the 4th best reliever.  Did anyone know that Angel would be lost for the year?  What about Gray getting off to a slow start due to his injury?

Basically, it’s not really Jim Hendry’s fault.  The pen could be really bad this year, but it’s game four, the year isn’t over.  Caridad still has good stuff, but he’s young and these things are going to happen when you can’t throw strikes.  I just don’t think he could have gone out and gotten anyone much better.

When you look at high priced relievers, you can see that they rarely work out in terms of Fangraph’s valuation.  That’s okay, because the Cubs can afford to overpay for the pen.  But just because you buy a pen, that doesn’t mean much of anything.  Since I’m too lazy to point out the stats, I’ll name those that have received big contracts only to fail as relievers.

• Brad Lidge
• BJ Ryan
• Mike Remlinger
• Jamie Walker
• Danys Baez
• Latroy Hawkis
• Fernando Rodney
• Scott Shields
• Scott Eyre
• Bobby Howry
• John Grabow
• Doug Brocail
• Russ Springer
• Matt Mantei
• Steve Karsay
• Kyle Farnsworth
• Juan Cruz

That’s just a few recent ones.  Now, building a pen is hardly predictable.  I couldn’t do it.  Scouting is extremely difficult, because the stuff a guy has one year may not translate.  Stats are tough to use, too.  There are leverage index’s, fielding-independent stats, different ratios, etc.  But can you really quantify the pressure a pitcher has in the 8th compared to the 6th?

One of the best bullpens in baseball history was the 2003/2004 LA Dodgers.  LA’s closer was Eric Gagne, who set the MLB record by recording 84 saves in a row.  He was a failed starter, couldn’t find the plate early in his career, and was very similar to Kyle Farnsworth.  Then he turned into the most dominating closer baseball has ever seen for a year and a half.  The guy setting up Gagne was Paul Quantrill, who the Dodgers traded for in 2002 to be the closer.  The Blue Jays took Luke Prokopec instead of Gagne in the trade.  Who was the 7th inning?  Guillermo Mota, a converted shortstop from the Mets system that was drafted in a minor-league draft.  Who would have thought that would be the most dominant pen in baseball?

The teams that make the playoffs always have very good bullpens.  If you use ERA to judge how good a bullpen is (collectively, not an awful idea, but an individual pitcher’s ERA out of the pen is a bad idea) then the teams that have top 5 ‘pens always finish over .500.  The bullpen is very important, but there’s just no way in having certainty in it.  The ‘pen is extremely important to this year’s Cubs team, and with the struggle to score runs, it’s going to be even more important that they hold down late leads.

But, with a team that’s going to be around .500 for most of the year, it seems silly to invest a lot of money into a bullpen when the rest of the team isn’t very good.  The Cubs pen was bad last year, but so was the offense.  If the offense was a top-five offense, you go and gamble with signing free agent relievers.  Since it’s not very good, you might as well check on what you have.  What the Cubs have is probably pretty bad, but I’ll take the extra money they don’t spend on relievers this year and put it towards a bigger player in the future.

EDIT (1:54 AM) I took the stats that Baseball Prospectus uses to rate relievers.  They call it runs saved.  If you want to read more, check out their site.  Anyways, here are the leaders in 2008.  Next to their 2008 rank, I have their 2009 rank and the change.

I don’t think I have to say anything more here.  It’s tough building a pen, even tougher to keep a bullpen good for a long time.  Notice the elite pitchers in the game didn’t have much change.

As the season continues, how is Lou going to rotate his outfielders?  Marlon Byrd and Kosuke Fukudome have had the best collective at-bats, and they need to get at least 500 plate appearances each.  Nady’s elbow still isn’t 100% which makes him a defensive liability in either corner.  Colvin doesn’t like to be patient, which hurts his value at the plate, but looks solid defensively.  What’s the optimal rotation?  I don’t know if anyone knows, but here’s my best guess.

Marlon Byrd – 500

Kosuke Fukudome – 450

Alfonso Soriano – 450

Xavier Nady – 250

Tyler Colvin – 150

These are the plate appearances plus pinch hit appearances.  I think you’ll see Colvin get defensive innings in the outfield, as well as Kosuke when the Cubs face left-handed starters.  Kosuke’s defense saved the Cubs last night, cutting off two balls that could have been extra bases.  Colvin could hit his way into more plate appearances.  When Nady declares himself 100%, he may see some more plate appearances.

As of now, I like that Lou is shuffling it around to see what works best.  I’m not really concerned about guys “getting into a groove” because they’re veterans, and you can maybe squeeze out an extra win by playing the correct matchups and playing the hot hands.  I like that Lou is not afraid to sit Soriano, and if he continues to look bad at the plate, there may be more benching’s in the future.

Since the organization is without a plan, I feel as if this website should be without one, too.  In watching the Cubs the past 20 years, I’ve decided I should dedicate a blog to the Cubs, a team I hate to love.  I will be posting game previews, game recaps, and Paul Sullivan hatred.  

I encourage you to leave comments and discuss the team as the 2010 season unfolds.  If you guys aren’t familiar with me, I also write at anothercubsblog, a blog that’s a lot better than mine.  I will be adding a section of Cubs sites that are really good on the right side of the page.  Let me know if you’d like to see anything else, or if you’d like to contribute to the site at all.

Thanks,

- Marco

Ryan Dempster makes his first start of the year on Wednesday, as he attempts to put the Cubs into the win column.  Dempster had a solid season last year, going 11-9 with a 3.65 ERA.  He projects to be just as good this year, and will need to be to get his first win.

The Cubs will face Jair Jurrjens, who had a phenomenal year last year going 14-10 with a 2.60 ERA.  He wasn’t that good, as his xFIP was higher – 4.34.  Jurrjens does a great job in getting groundballs with a power sinker that he throws 63% of the time.  He’s much like Derek Lowe, but throws a little harder.  He’ll be tough against the Cubs because the Cubs lineup is primarily right handed. 

If I were to bet on the game, I’d put money on the Braves.  Jurrjens was slowed at the beginning of spring due to a shoulder injury, but that appears to have dissipated.  Let’s see if Lou goes with Tyler Colvin against the groundball pitcher in left field tonight.  I’d definitely like to see that.

The Braves are a playoff team and this is a good test for the Cubs, win or lose.  The Cubs opponents have an expected winning percentage of .488 in April, second lowest of the months.  They could do some damage in April, but they need to get on track.  Monday’s game might have been a fluke, but for me to be completely sure that it was, a solid game is needed today.

Prediction: Braves win 5-3.

In the first inning, Marlon Byrd drilled a fastball 410 feet over the center field fence for a three-run home run.  As he entered the dugout, he yelled out, “this is how you make a statement.”

I think he was talking about a positive statement.  Apparently Carlos Zambrano thought otherwise.

Zambrano didn’t have his stuff in the first, walking Melky Cabrera and giving up three straight hits before striking out Troy Glaus.  Those three hits were basically bloopers.  McCann singled on a pitch that broke his bat.  Chipper Jones singled on a pop up to Theriot.  No, seriously.  That’s what the gamecast on mlb.com said.

Zambrano started throwing fastballs down the middle, giving up a single toYunel Escobar, then giving up an absolute piss rocket to Jason Heyward.

It was the worst first inning I’ve ever seen on an opening day.  Maybe Z got it out of him after the first game.  I can’t say that I’m really worried about Z, but I am worried about some of the other things that happened.

1. Alfonso Soriano looked absolutely lost – Soriano went 0-4, struck out twice, and only saw 10 pitches.  Even worse, his swings were usually nowhere near the ball.  I know he’s a slow starter, but he looked like he was 50 years old and was swinging a garden hose.

2. Geovany Soto rolled over two pitches for groundouts, and didn’t have the same swing that we saw in 2008.

3. Mike Fontenot looked to be pressing, and his bat showed it.  One of these three need to hit so the end of the lineup is better than abysmal.  He bobbled a couple balls, couldn’t get to others and looked like he belonged in Iowa.  He did make a diving catch late in the game, but it couldn’t save his performance.

Now, I know that it’s just one game, and that things could completely turn around on Wednesday.  But after the poor seasons these  three had in 2009, it’s a bit concerning.

Other notes of concern – Derrek Lee didn’t look right in the field with his throw to Samardzija in the 7th.  Everyone looks like they were afraid to go make a play.

Jeff Samardzija – FAIL. EPIC FAIL.  CAREER FAIL.  His ERA is 108. His WHiP is 9.  Why people have any hope left is beyond me. I don’t know why I did.  Maybe it’s because he throws very hard?  Maybe it’s because he went to ND?  Either way, the guy is hopeless.  When Lilly returns, he should be the one sent down, and maybe sent out of the organization.

‘Pen – Outside of Caridad and Marmol, this pen could be bad.  It showed some life though, as Marshall and Russell pitched well. But you have to throw strikes, and if you can’t, you’re not ever going to make it.  Justin Berg and Jeff Samardzija looked like they had no idea where the ball was going. But, Sean Marshall threw really well, and Russell did too, considering the circumstances.

Again, it’s one game, and everyone, including myself, is going to overreact. (My Al Yellon sentence).  The bad part about it is that they are the same mistakes that happened last year.

Good news is, the Cubs can’t lose today.  Also, 5 of the 8 playoff teams started 0-1 last year.  Both World Series teams lost their first game.  There’s still hope, but not a lot.

Interesting 20 minutes with Ben Sheets. The Cubs have a shot, if they pay... More to follow on Tuesday.

Facebook can be a pain in the ass website sometimes, especially when your parents get accounts.  It’s terrible because when you really have important things going on in your life, all you want to do is “chat.”  People find you that you really didn’t want to find you, and it can be a mess.

But, Facebook can also be a really great thing.  Like when you add Ben Sheets as a friend.  Then you talk to him on Facebook chat.

*Side note — (dying laughing) is a macro at ACB.  Everytime you post “lol” at ACB, it automatically transfers to (dying laughing).  So, Sheets and I were actually typing lol.  Just for clarification.

10:19pm Marco
how’s the off season treating you??
10:19pm Ben
awesome
10:20pm Marco
we’d love to have you in chicago
10:20pm Ben
thx it may happen
10:22pm Marco
when you choose a team, what do you look for most?
10:22pm Ben
what do u think is most important?
10:23pm Marco
Either winning or money, depending on where you are in your career.
10:24pm Ben
haha u answered ur own question
most of time team that pays is teams that win.
10:25pm Marco
you’re a force, ben. we gotta get you in chi-town
10:25pm Ben
i love chitown
fave city
10:26pm Marco
all you gotta do is come here, and we’ll build you a statue after we win a world series
10:26pm Ben
(dying laughing)
illll just take a pic with jordans
10:27pm Marco
how’s the elbow feel??
10:27pm Ben
im rehabbing and it feels grerst (great)
10:29pm Marco
i feel you on the rehab
i tore my elbow at 18, so i know what it’s i only topped out at 84, it wasn’t a big loss (dying laughing)
10:29pm Ben
i hope to top at 84
(dying laughing)
10:29pm Marco
for sure, do you usually talk to GMs or is it more your agent?
10:31pm Ben
agent
i dont know hedry
but i did talk to him at a country club in louisiana bout 2 weeks ago
10:33pm Marco
what are the conversations like?
10:34pm Ben
i forgot
drinks on course
(dying laughing)
10:34pm Marco
when do you hope to find out about next year?
10:34pm Ben
about week or 2
10:34pm Marco
are the cubs the frontrunners? haha
10:35pm Ben
no frontrunners
10:36pm Marco
how many teams are calling?
10:36pm Ben
about 100
(dying laughing)
japan
korea
mexico
little league
said i look younger than danny almonte

The guy has a sense of humor, that’s for sure.  ”I hope to top out at 84″ was obviously a joke.

But more impressive, the Cubs actually have a shot here.  He’s going to go where the money takes him, but he really likes the city, and the Cubs could be a contender with him.

CHONE projects Sheets at about 2.3 wins over 114 innings.  Fans suggest he’s worth about 2.6 wins over 122 innings.  Will Sheets pitch to projections?  It’s anyone’s guess, but it depends on what Sheets brings on Tuesday in front of eight teams.  Sheets has the ability to out pitch his projections, especially if he stays healthy and makes 25 starts and goes 150-160 innings.  He could be worth up to four wins, and that would put the Cubs closer to the Cards in the NL Central.  The Cards are probably at 92 or 93 wins, and the Cubs are probably at 85 right now (with projected rebounds), so adding Sheets cuts the lead in half.  Combine that with question marks with Chris Carpenter, and the Cubs have at least a shot in the NL Central.

Fun night with Ben Sheets — Hopefully he shows that he’s healthy, and he comes to the city he loves in 2010.

In the weeks leading up to Opening Day, I will have posts regarding the Cubs 2010 projected finish, as well as projections about other teams in the division.

To read more great thoughts on the Cubs, check out anothercubsblog.net — MB21 runs the site, and there are some great posters over there that will corrupt you, er, convince you to be a better fan.

Andruw Jones, Omar Vizquel, Alex Rios and Juan Pierre have been acquired by the Pale Hose to  play in 2010.  The issue is that it’s five years too late.

These are the WAR for those four players in 2006 compared to their 2009 WAR.

• Jones 2006: 6.1      Jones 2009: 0.8
• Vizquel 2006: 3.4    Vizquel 2009: 1.2
• Rios 2006: 3.3      Rios 2009: -0.1
• Pierre 2006: 2.9     Pierre 2009: 1.8

These players are not very good.  Neither is Kenny Williams, so I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.

Grabow has had trouble hitting the strike zone, as he’s posted a 4.15 BB/9 over his career.  Last year, it was at 4.98 per 9.  His ERA has been low the last two years due to low BABIP levels.  Grabow has never been worth more than half a win, and for a guy that’s set to make $3.75M, that’s a bit too much.

Obviously the bigger issue is that the Cubs don’t have much money, and the $7.5M over two years could be spent much better.  Essentially replacement level, Grabow doesn’t inspire much confidence in the 8th inning.

The better player here?  Kiko Calero formely from the Florida Marlins.  Calero, 34, had a stellar season in 2009, posting  2.56 FIP while missing a lot of bats – 10.35 K/9.  Calero, though, was aided by a low BABIP of .256 and his HR/9 is unsustainable at 0.15.  All together, that was worth 1.4 wins.

Is this what we should project from Calero going forward?  Obviously not, as he is 34 and is injury prone.  If we normalize his HR/9 and his BABIP, you get a nice 3.40 FIP, and that would be worth a little less than win if he pitches about 60-70 innings.  That projected FIP is one run better than Grabow, he throws harder and misses more bats than Grabow, he gives up less homers than Grabow and has a better breaking pitch than Grabow.

What would he have cost though?  Probably less than Grabow, as he wasn’t offered arbitration this off-season.  Could the Cubs have picked him up for half of what they spent on Grabow?  Sure, and they would have used him in a set-up type role.

In a year where the Cubs need to get the most bang for their buck, Calero was a low risk, high reward guy.  An extra two million dollars added to the salary saved from Aaron Miles could bring in another reliever or be put towards a bigger move like Mike Cameron or Marlon Byrd.